The Perils of Overconfidence

This chapter examines the tendency of individuals to overgeneralize their past successes, leading to overconfidence in new situations. It highlights the dangers of epistemic trespassing and the pitfalls of relying on non-experts in complex fields, urging a more journalistic approach to research. Additionally, it discusses the Dunning-Kruger effect, the variability of expert credibility, and the paradox of overconfidence among both novices and seasoned professionals.