In this Global Macro Update, Nik walks through a massive chart pack to help decode today’s volatile macro landscape. Gold is leading the way, outpacing Bitcoin over the past 12 months and signaling a global monetary reset in motion. Nik connects the dots between soaring gold prices, weakening demand for U.S. Treasuries, and a shift away from dollar recycling as trade relationships are restructured. He analyzes Bitcoin’s technical setup, MVRV valuation, and ETF inflows, and explores how rising bond volatility and term premia are draining liquidity. Plus, new insights on the U.S. energy boom, unemployment pressures, and why the Fed may cut rates even as inflation stays tame.
Link to Bessent speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRCsjVlA0VA&t=1s
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Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc
Creative Director Matthew Ball's Twitter: https://twitter.com/matthewrball
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Chapters:
00:00:00 Bitcoin and Gold Performance: A 12-Month Overview
00:03:01 Understanding Gold Price Movements in a Global Economy
00:05:42 The Importance of Bitcoin's Decentralization
00:08:30 Understanding Bitcoin's Realized Price and Investor Behavior
00:11:14 Bitcoin Price Drivers and Realized Price
00:13:49 Evolution of Bitcoin Volatility
00:16:36 The Impact of Bitcoin Bounce and Market Liquidity Trends
00:19:11 Understanding M2 and Asset Base Relationship
00:22:01 Changing Dynamics in US Treasury Holdings
00:24:52 Impact of US Government Spending Cuts on the Economy
00:27:42 Impact of Tariffs on Economic Growth and Inflation
00:30:18 Inflation Trends and Market Responses
00:33:12 Fed's Rate Cut Strategy and Economic Indicators
00:35:56 Impact of US Manufacturing Decline
00:38:32 Path to U.S. Fiscal Sustainability
00:41:13 Bitcoin's Growing Share in Global Equities
00:44:04 Conclusion and Farewell
The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.
