Where Is Judgment, Is There Noise?

The project started really when i was doing some consulting with an insurance company. And the question was, if you look at two underwriters selected at random, how much will they differ in percentage of the average of their judgment? And this particular question turns out to have an answer that many people agree on, olevier thin as asked hundreds of people and the answer that you get is roughly ten%. The true number was 50 %. Five zero. five times larger than expected. That's basically the origin of the noise. It's not only that there is disagreement among people that was well known, has always been well known, but that there is a lot of disagreement t the scale of it