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155. Deciphering the economy’s mixed signals

Inside the Strategy Room

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The Risks of Uncertainty in the Global Economy

We think this is an important question to ask because if you look at prognosticators and institutions that do forecasts across the world, the range of GDP outcomes is really just not that wide kind of going forward. It's also true, at least in our view, that there are still risks out there that need to be taken into account as Ea and Michael have been discussing. And so when we think about what could drive the scenarios, with the vertical axis, this is all the geopolitical risk. The energy balance and all these kinds of issues that are out there that are kind of longer term. We all contribute to them, but no one really controls them. So that matrix of uncertainty is

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