Market Dynamics and Political Uncertainty: Analyzing the Trump Effect

Is Trump in the price? Wall Street is asking this question. In this podcast, I walk through how the market prices implied volatility around the US Election, focusing on the SPX, TLT and even DJT. As option premiums are much higher than justified by recent realized, there’s an enormous vol risk premium, the result of a withdrawal of vol supply. There’s interesting information coming from betting sites like Polymarket and early voting data as well that might help us better understand the election probabilities and the implications for how the market prices options. Lastly, I consider the relatively rare co-existence of a high VIX but low SPX implied correlation and what that means. I hope you enjoy this discussion and welcome your feedback. Have a great week.