Dalio: Money matters and in most contexts, unless there's an actual war, matters more than people with guns. And so he understands power in that sense, I think very well as ascribed by the success of his fund in his firm. He also goes through just some historical examples and gives why these were successful, why these groups or empires or countries did what they did and why they succeeded or failed. So it's valuable to learn from that lens just as much as the other lens.
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Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, has written several books on the world of investing and the economy in general based on his years of experience as manager of the world’s largest hedge fund. In the latest of his ‘Principles’ series, Dalio applies his quantitative approach of macro investing to analyzing countries, seeking to identify the factors that lead to strength such as education and work ethic, as well as lagging indicators such as a reserve currency that allow a country to spend beyond its means but ultimately presage a fall from dominance. Notably, Dalio sees China’s rise to the top of global power as likely, with America, while ahead, slowly declining. Tonight we debate the merits of his analysis, as well as the overall validity of a global macroeconomic approach that overlooks key factors such as demographics in forecasting long term power status.
