Is the Eel Curve Telling You Something?

I think financial conditions have tightened because of commodity prices erm and negative real wages. So i think what we're measuring in financial conditions probably not enough. I also look at rate of change, and the gill curve is telling you something that the financial conditions isn't what you think. If my forward looking indicators suggest that the i s m is at least coming down to 50 over the summer, or somewhere close to it, which would be kind of relatively low growth, one % growth. That's my higher probability, but it's not like a 70% chance. Were like, there's lot of different outcomes that could happen here for, you kow, thre lots of reasons