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Michael Mauboussin on Valuation, Base Rates and Expectations Investing

Excess Returns

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Is There Value in Forecasting Long-Term Stock Returns?

Wall Street strategists are giving their year end 2022 S&P target prices. Do you think there's value in that? And maybe more specifically, like how is an individual investor when they see those types of things?" Well, the first thing I'll just say is unless there are ranges, you should be very careful about paying attention to it," he says. "There's usually a relationship between these things over time"

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