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Why Inflation Will Dissipate | Bilal Hafeez
Forward Guidance
The Fed Fund's Probability Adjusted Probability Range for March of 2023 Is 27.3
The market is trying to juggle the two. Are we early in an expansion or are we very late in the cycle? And so the market kind of skits a phrenic about which one are we in? In some ways, what's interesting is that the market is essentially pricing a terminal rate of around 2%. So the highest rate we got to was 2.5% in the last hiking cycle. But 2% was where the Fed was before COVID started. The other strange thing is we've never really had the start of a Fed hiking cycle where the curve has been so flat going into the first Fed hike.
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