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Surveillance: Harris's recession forecast
Bloomberg Surveillance
The Mystery of the Boozy Consumer
All of our leading indicators and our economic model suggests that the best base case scenario is indeed a recession in Q4. It doesn't feel good as everyone moves towards the soft landing thesis, but when you stick to the leading indicators, we have to say that is the best base cases. If you want to play off momentum, sentiment and technicals, now is the time to shine if those are your strength. I do not believe right now we are at an inflection point, even though today's a fed meeting and it may feel that way. An inflection point is to win that recession will probably come back into the story three months later.
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