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Soldiers and Scouts with Julia Galef
The Decision Corner
The Secret Sauce to Super Forecasting
A team of amateur political and economic forecasters won a tournament sponsored by the us. Government in 20 20 13 or 20 14. They were like 30 % more accurate than the actual c iages, right? And so tetlock dubbed them the super forecasters and wrote this book with dan gardner about what they were doing right. What was the secret sauce to super forecasting? It's really interesting, and, i think, unusually rigorous for a social science study. The best people on tetlock's team just blew the competition out of the water.
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