U.S.–China Rapprochement Alarms New Delhi

U.S.-India relations have struggled despite U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s close personal relationship. This episode unpacks why tariffs, security concerns, and a détente with China has reframed the importance of the relationship, and what it could take to put it back on track. 

Host:

James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR

Guest:

Sadanand Dhume, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia, CFR

We Discuss:

• Why U.S.-India relations have been uncertain since mid-2025 after having slowly strengthened over many years.
• How the second Trump administration’s early actions and India’s multipolar diplomacy forced substantive confrontations thatTrump and  Modi’s personal relationship could not overcome.
• Why U.S.-India trade negotiations stalled and the Trump administration imposed tariffs, despite India repeatedly offering concessions.
• How the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict and Trump’s claim of forcing a ceasefire put Modi in a domestic political bind.
• How Pakistan’s prominent role in brokering the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has amplified Indian anxieties about a U.S.-Pakistan thaw.
• Why Trump’s talk of a Group of Two with China undermines its strategic desire to strengthen India as a counterweight to Chinese power.
• What the state of the Quad—an informal security dialogue among the United States, Australia, India, and Japan—and the United States’ de-emphasis of the Indo-Pacific framework reveal about U.S. strategy in Asia.
• How Modi is normalizing ties with China and whether there is a limit to normalization given the Himalayan border dispute and China’s efforts to constrain India’s growth.
• How India’s dependence on Russian arms has fallen over time, and why India is increasingly skeptical that Russia can act independently of China.
• Why Modi has resisted domestic political pressure to challenge Trump, and what that restraint reveals about India’s calculation of its long-term national interest.
• Where the greatest opportunity lies to rebuild the U.S.-India relationship, and why tech cooperation and Silicon Valley represent the most natural and promising place to start.

Mentioned in the Episode:

“How People in 24 Countries View India,” Pew Research Center

Mathew George, Katarina Djokic, Zain Hussain, Pieter D. Wezeman, and Siemon T. Wezeman, “Trends In International Arms Transfers, 2024,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox

Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.