It has been over a month since Russia invaded Ukraine, but with Kyiv still yet to fall Kremlin officials have announced plans to withdraw troops from the region. Where did Russia’s war go so wrong? Is this retreat real, or is Putin wargaming for something bigger?

Dr Mike Martin, a former British Army officer and author of Why We Fight, joins Arthur Snell to discuss Russia’s apparent withdrawal, and where the conflict could go next.

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• “The Russians only have around 200,000 soldiers, but you need around a million to hold Ukraine.”
• “The people at the top of the Ukrainian army would’ve served in the Soviet army, so they are aware of how it operates.”
• “Russia have a number of commitments that tie up their forces… they’re very worried about China.”
• “Syrians and Central Africans are being paid by Russia to fight. They wouldn’t be calling on these people if they had a formed reserve.”
• “As far as the Ukrainians are concerned, this is a fight for national survival, and the public are behind them.”
• “Russia are shifting their goals because they need some kind of domestic victory.”
• “If you look through history, Russian leaders don’t survive when they lose wars.”
• “A fighting retreat is probably the most difficult land manoeuvre to execute.”
• “If costs aren’t imposed on Russia like they weren’t in 2014, then they will come again and finish the job off.”
• “Even for the propagandists in the Kremlin, using nukes is a step too far.”

DOOMSDAY WATCH was written and presented by Arthur Snell, and produced by Robin Leeburn with Jacob Archbold. Theme tune and original music by Paul Hartnoll. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. DOOMSDAY WATCH is a Podmasters production.

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