2min chapter

80,000 Hours Podcast cover image

#11 - Spencer Greenberg on speeding up social science 10-fold & why plenty of startups cause harm

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

The Importance of Understanding Probabilities

The figure there for all of the groups was around 10% chance of a major nuclear war in the next 50 years, which is worryingly high. It's about 0.2% a year, I guess. So something potentially- Very worryingly. Something that we should potentially be caring more about. And then you did have the disagreement you might expect about AI that kills people. The people involved in the effective activism community had a median answer of 10% probability on that. Whereas the general population thought it was 1%. Still concerningly high.I think I might care if there was a new technology that had that higher chance of causing mass death. A 1% is a really big number

00:00

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode