Risks of $40 Oil for Small Producers

1. Oil Prices & National Security

• Lower global oil prices weaken hostile regimes like Iran, Russia, and Venezuela by reducing their revenue.
• The Trump administration aims for a “sweet spot” oil price ($60–$70/barrel):
  • Low enough to hurt adversaries.
  • High enough to avoid bankrupting U.S. independent oil producers.
• If prices drop into the $40s, it could collapse small oil producers in Texas and the Permian Basin.

2. Venezuela’s Oil Infrastructure

• Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but decades of mismanagement have destroyed its infrastructure.
• Estimates from oil executives:
  • Increasing production from 1 million to 3 million barrels/day could take 10 years and require $100B+ in investment.
  • Even going from 1 million to 2 million/day would take 5–7 years.
• Gulf Coast refineries can process Venezuela’s heavy sour crude, but expanded imports would mostly affect Canada and Mexico, not U.S. light-sweet crude producers.

3. Cuba’s Economic Crisis

• Cuba historically survived on financial support from:
  1. The Soviet Union (until its collapse).
  2. Venezuela under Chávez/Maduro (oil and money).
• With Venezuela no longer able to support Cuba, the island is in economic freefall.
• Mexico is currently providing oil that helps sustain the Cuban regime.
• The Trump administration may pressure Mexico to cut this supply, potentially pushing Cuba toward political collapse.

4. Jack Smith & January 6th Investigation

• Smith is accused of leading a politically motivated prosecution against Donald Trump.
• He allegedly relied on questionable or disproven testimony, notably from Cassidy Hutchinson.
• Hutchinson’s dramatic claims (e.g., Trump lunging for a steering wheel) were not confirmed by eyewitnesses.
• Jim Jordan challenged Smith in hearings, accusing him of:
  • Using unreliable witnesses.
  • Conducting a partisan, anti-Trump investigation.
  • Targeting large numbers of Republicans with subpoenas.

5. Crime Statistics & Trump Administration Policies

• Nationwide murder rates reportedly declined ~20% from 2024 to 2025.
  • Approx. 1,400 fewer murders.
• Major cities showing decreases:
  • Chicago: 30%
  • NYC: 20%
  • Baltimore: 31%
  • Oakland: 33%
  • Washington, D.C.: 31% (after National Guard deployment)
• Other violent crimes also declined:
  • Motor vehicle theft: ↓25%
  • Robbery: ↓18%
  • Aggravated assault: ↓8%

Law enforcement stats cited:

• Violent crime arrests: ↑100%
• Gangs disrupted: ↑210%
• Fentanyl seized: ↑31%
• Missing/abducted children located: ↑22%
• Human traffickers arrested: ↑15%
• Significant increase in arrests of espionage suspects and fugitives.

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