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Aswath Damodaran: A Valuation Expert’s Take on Inflation, Stock Buybacks, ESG, and More

The Long View

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The Equity Risk Premium

The equity risk premium is what investors demand as a premium over whatever is risk free at that point in time for investing in stocks. When times are good and you feel really good, that number will come down. From a stock perspective, when equity risk premiums come down, you're going to pay much more for stocks. The only way to tell this, stocks are incredibly noisy. Testimated, you need about 150 years of stock return before you can conclusively say an approach works. I find market timing strategies to be almost throwing a dart and hoping it gets to the right spot. After all, if it's a good measure, it should forecast returns on stocks well for the next decade.

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