Prediction Markets and the Maduro Bet

Prediction markets are turning into real-time intelligence, and policymakers are already reacting. In this week’s Weekly Rollup, Ryan and David unpack the Venezuela “Maduro” trade, the debate over fairness vs. public signal, and Polymarket’s expansion into real estate markets. They also cover Bitcoin’s lowest-vol year ever, Solana’s DEX surge, Ethereum’s stablecoin settlement ATH, Morgan Stanley’s crypto ETF filings, Zcash’s governance blowup, Lighter’s massive $LIT airdrop, Vitalik’s “trilemma solved” claim, Wyoming’s state stablecoin, and Strategy’s path toward major indices.

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TIMESTAMPS & RESOURCES

0:00 Intro

2:49 Markets

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2025-ray-dalio-kaf8e/

https://x.com/dampedspring/status/2008568524046991733

https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/bl

https://www.dlnews.com/articles/regulation/bitcoin-least-volatile-year/

https://x.com/NTmoney/status/2007111582317215767

https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2007167084980044071

https://x.com/smyyguy/status/2009282261384888407

https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/2007980573365502161

https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/2008527564550156315

https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2008926447205843202

https://x.com/Matt_Hougan/status/2008542347425149247

14:03 Did Polymarket reveal the Venezuela invasion hours prior the announcement?

https://www.war.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4370431/trump-announces-us-militarys-capture-of-maduro/

https://x.com/JoePompliano/status/2007455311351718118

https://x.com/0xKelle/status/2008099287851561262

https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/2007497192974459372

https://x.com/QuiverQuant/status/2008029132484206664

https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2008245382539882784

https://x.com/zoomerfied/status/2008184924377960502

25:41 Polymarket Market of the Week

27:42 ZEC dump and resignation 

https://x.com/solidintel_x/status/2009172254496870816

https://x.com/DefiIgnas/status/2009235841751613660

31:05 Lighter launched the Lighter Infrastructure Token

https://x.com/Lighter_xyz/status/2005862682608472263

https://x.com/bubblemaps/status/2006296418622001313

https://defillama.com/protocol/perps/lighter-perps

https://x.com/Lighter_xyz/status/2008309047787753497

35:27 Has Ethereum resolved the blockchain trilemma? 

https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2007559523528233041

https://x.com/ralexstokes/status/2008707458563535022

https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2008174642066845778

https://x.com/dankrad/status/2008466291913265443

45:49 SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw resigned

https://x.com/EleanorTerrett/status/2007195935403847868

46:32 Major US retailers are accepting crypto payments

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-starbucks-more-accepting-crypto-202205775.html

48:14 Wyoming launches first US state-issued stablecoin

https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/2008958574962028924

50:00 MSCI decided not to exclude DATs from their indexes

https://www.msci.com/indexes/index-resources/index-announcements

51:28 Closing & Disclaimers 

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