The real estate market in 2024 has seen a surge in activity since January 1st marked by increased optimism not witnessed in almost a year. In this episode we look at several factors that are contributing to this shift, with a primary focus on the Bank of Canada's anticipated actions, fixed mortgage rates, Toronto's unique market dynamics, the rental market, and immigration issues.
The BoC is expected to implement rate cuts in 2024, with projections indicating the first cut likely in March. Forward looking markets now suggest the overnight rate is anticipated to end the year at 3.5%, a decrease from 3.75% last month and 4.25% in November. Rising debt loads, mortgage renewals and lower job vacancies are key factors influencing this decision. Although a cut in January is not expected, the meeting on the 24th could hold potential surprises, contingent on inflationary trends.
Fixed mortgage rates are decreasing, with deeply discounted rates hovering around 5.2%. Real estate sentiment is increasing due to the anticipation of lower interest rates, reflected in the RE Confidence Index rising from 37 to 45 in 8 months. Despite this, buyers still face higher than average interest rates, tempering buying behaviors and prices. With the average cost of mortgages still 60% higher than pre-pandemic levels, we don't foresee a rush back to the marketplace or pandemic pricing to return.
Looking to Toronto's real estate market, which faced significant challenges in 2023, with the lowest home sales (66k) since 2000. However, a sudden spike of 21% in December sales suggests a potential shift, though likely due to the new municipal land transfer tax that was implemented in the new year. New listings fell by 13% in December, causing a notable increase in the sales-to-listings ratio. Prices dropped 1.3% last month, totaling a 15% decrease from record highs. The supply-demand dynamic will likely influence price trends in the coming months.
Turning to the rental market, December rental data is showing stability in asking rents, with Vancouver leading the country in rates. Burnaby experienced a significant 15% year-over-year increase landing itself as the second most expensive rental market in Canada. Toronto remains relatively flat, while Guelph, ONT, saw a 2.3% drop in 1-bedroom rents.
With 1.2 million immigrants in the last year, the housing market has experienced increased stress. Rental rates reached an all-time high in 2023, and healthcare and education system strains are emerging. The long-term impact of these challenges is expected to persist throughout 2024 as these are not easily fixed.
Lastly, we look at the recent property assessments in BC which have been released by the BC Assessment Authority, with most markets showing a 5% increase or decrease in single-family home prices. While some experts attribute this to homeowners making adjustments to cope with rising living costs, latent data indicates HPI avg home values are actually down 3.5% since the assessments were conducted.
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Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA
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dan@thevancouverlife.com
Ryan Dash PREC
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ryan@thevancouverlife.com
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