The Japan Macro Outlook

As Japan anticipates shifts in structural policy and GDP growth, these are the industries within the market that are poised to benefit. Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya, Chief Japan Economist Takeshi Yamaguchi, and Japan Senior Advisor Robert Feldman discuss.

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Chetan Ahya: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. 

Takeshi Yamaguchi: I'm Takeshi Yamaguchi, Chief Japan Economist. 

Robert Feldman: And I'm Robert Feldman, Japan Senior Advisor. 

Chetan Ahya: Yesterday I discussed broad economic contours of Morgan Stanley's constructive view on Japan. Today, in the second installment of our special three part episode on Japan, we will dig deeper into the implications of the shift in Japan's nominal GDP path, the outlook for BOJ policy, as well as the outlook for structural reforms. It's Thursday, July 20th at 9 a.m. in Hong Kong. 

Robert Feldman: And 10 a.m. in Tokyo. 

Chetan Ahya: Yamaguchi-San, let's start here. The change in inflation dynamics that I covered on yesterday's episode could mean a momentous shift in Japan's nominal GDP path. Maybe you could start here with you walking us through some of the key implications of this shift. 

Takeshi Yamaguchi: Yes, Japan's nominal GDP has been in a flat range for many years, since 1990's after the collapse of the asset bubble. But now it's finally getting out of the range, and we expect this trend of positive nominal GDP growth to continue over the medium term. I think there are mainly three implications from economists' viewpoints. First, we expect compensation of employees, that's the amount taken by workers, and corporate earnings to grow at the same time. Before it was like a zero sum game with almost no nominal GDP growth, but now we expect a bigger economic pie which should benefit both workers and companies. Japan's wage trend is already improving after strong spring wage negotiations this year. Second, we think that the revival of positive nominal GDP growth will improve Japan's fiscal sustainability. We are already seeing a big increase in tax revenue with strong nominal GDP growth. Meanwhile, we expect the average interest costs or interest burden to increase only gradually due to monetary policy and also because average maturity of Japanese government bonds exceeds nine years. And finally, we think the outlook of higher nominal GDP growth strength should have some positive impact on asset prices, including equity prices. This is not the only reason behind the recent equity market moves, but the likely shift in the nominal GDP growth trend is playing some role here in our view. 

Chetan Ahya: Another question I want to ask is around the Bank of Japan's yield curve control program. You're expecting the BOJ to adjust its policy around yield curve control program at the upcoming policy in end July, which would be the second shift in monetary policy stance last December. Do you see further shifts in monetary policy and would it disrupt the virtuous cycle we are forecasting? 

Takeshi Yamaguchi: At that July monetary policy meeting we don't expect the BOJ to get rid of YCC, the yield curve control framework, but we expect the BOJ to change the conduct of YCC by allowing more fluctuations of ten year JGB yields, potentially to plus/minus 1%, around 0%. And that said, we think the BOJ governor Ueda directly emphasized that the 2% inflation target is still not achieved in a sustainable manner. So we expect the BOJ to maintain the current short term policy rate of -0.1% after the YCC adjustment. In the third quarter next year we expect the BOJ to exit negative interest rate policy after observing another round of solid spring wage negotiations. But even so, Japan's real interest rates would remain extremely low for some time. So we think the virtuous cycle we've been highlighting will likely remain intact. 

Chetan Ahya: Thank you, Yamaguchi-San. Robbie, let me turn it over to you. Japan has been feeling increasing pressure from demographics and other factors at home and geopolitics abroad. And so in response it's developing a new grand strategy and undergoing a number of structural reforms. You believe these reforms could lead to higher growth, walk us through why you feel so positive. 

Robert Feldman: Thanks, Chetan. Structural reforms are being triggered by both market forces and policy. The market forces are technology change, labor shortage, geopolitical pressures, higher interest rates, pricing power from the end of deflation and supply chain derisking. The policy forces are corporate governance changes, immigration law changes, startup policies, monetary policy and climate and sustainability policy. There are lots of market forces and lots of policy forces behind these changes. 

Chetan Ahya: In what industries do you expect to see the biggest changes? 

Robert Feldman: There are five industries where I think there will be major changes. And other industries, of course, will have them as well, but these five industries could even be subject to disruption. These are energy, agriculture, AI and I.T., health care and education. Let me say a couple words about each. In energy Japan has been a little bit behind some other countries in introducing renewables, but it's catching up. A particularly promising is offshore wind, and especially offshore floating wind. There still has to be some cost reductions, but there's a lot of interest and Japan has huge resources in this area. In agriculture Japan is 60% dependent on foreign countries for total calorie intake. Moreover, about 10% of the agricultural land in the country is lying unused. That's because of land law issues, etc. and vested interests, but there's huge opportunity there. AI and IT, this is where probably progress has been the fastest because of the labor shortage. Japan views AI and IT as a savior because this labor shortage is just so intense. Health care, Japan is an old country and it's getting older, health care costs are going up and so it's imperative that living standards be maintained in the health care area through lower costs and better effectiveness. Japan has a good healthcare system, but it's under a lot of monetary pressure and that's why the technology changes are so important. And finally, education. If technology is going to spread, we need workers who are educated in the new technology. And that's where reskilling and recurrent education, lifelong education will become so, so important. This will be primarily a private sector initiative because government is focused on standard, primary, secondary education. So there's a lot of opportunity in the education business. There are 72 listed companies in education in Japan. 

Chetan Ahya: And how much progress has been made so far on these structural reforms? And what does the timeline look from here? 

Robert Feldman: Progress has been fastest in AI and IT, because the labor shortage is so intense. AI is viewed as a savior here in Japan rather than with the trepidation in some other countries, due to this labor shortage. We've also seen good progress in energy in a number of fields hydrogen, solar, carbon capture, wind and ammonia. Health care has seen much progress within hospitals where IT platforms are quite advanced at administrative functions. Agriculture has been slower, but there are amazing advances in vertical farming. On the timeline these changes are happening now and likely to see significant momentum in the next 2 to 3 years. There is no time to waste and I'm expecting very rapid progress, particularly in AI/IT, energy and health care. 

Chetan Ahya: Yamaguchi-San, Robbie, thank you both for taking the time to talk. 

Takeshi Yamaguchi: Great speaking with you, Chetan. 

Robert Feldman: Thanks for having us. 

Chetan Ahya: And thanks for listening. Tomorrow, I will return for part three of the special segments on Japan. My guest will be Daniel Blake, our Asia equity strategist. We will discuss the market implications of our constructive Japan macro outlook and what investors should pay attention to. If you Enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.