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The Crisis in Europe
The onlything that could spark actual fighting is a ukranian provocation. On the other hand, as you say, putanis clearly using a build up of forces for leverage to try to advance his particular demands about ukraine not joining nato. Where did this crisis come from? Because again, in london, maybe in washington, people really weren't paying attention to this issue over the summer. Seemed to have been taken by surprise by it. But if you'll take a longer view, this crisis has been accumulating over the past couple of decades.