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Episode 37: Silicon Valley Bank; Credit Suisse; the Transfer of Wealth from Equity to Debt; Aussie Banks win in Flight to Quality; Default Cycle Ramps Up; Consumer Buffers; Best Trades and more

Complexity Premia

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The RBA's Last Hiking Cycle in 2010

We have never seen any cycle historically where very high levels of core inflation have been reverted back to 2% targets without a very big increase in the unemployment rate. We haven't seen much movement at all in high-year bond spreads or private credit spreads, which is really surprising. The market just feels dead, but it's not being marked to market properly and investors not going to be paid. There's spreads on high-year that they really need in a default cycle. And we've really encouraged people to think carefully for reaching for risk and searching for yield because they now have the benefit of the rise of risk-free yield.

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