How to Predict the Probability of Something Important

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I try to find every forecast of something that I can find by a credible player, whether prediction markets or expert forecasters like Phil Tuttlock. And then basically what I call a dragonfly eye prediction, which is it's comes from actually Tuttlock's idea of like dragonfly eyes and how you should look at making predictions. The source that I've trusted recently even more than other prediction markets is the good judgment project they've got. They've put together teams of people who have demonstrated proven track record of being very good at predicting things.

What are the best strategies for improving ourselves? How are line managers useful? Why does Rob prefer long-form content for the 80,000 Hours podcast? What are the sorts of things humans value and why? In what ways do research ethics considerations fail to achieve their stated objectives? Why are prediction markets useful?

Rob Wiblin is the Head of Research at 80,000 Hours where he investigates how people can do more good in the course of their career and produces a long-form interview show called the 80,000 Hours Podcast. He studied genetics and economics in Australia before moving to the UK to help develop the emerging field of effective altruism. You can learn more about Rob at robwiblin.com, learn more about his research work at 80000hours.org, and follow him on social media at @robertwiblin.

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