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3min chapter
Self-Improvement and Research Ethics (with Rob Wiblin)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
How to Predict the Probability of Something Important
I try to find every forecast of something that I can find by a credible player, whether prediction markets or expert forecasters like Phil Tuttlock. And then basically what I call a dragonfly eye prediction, which is it's comes from actually Tuttlock's idea of like dragonfly eyes and how you should look at making predictions. The source that I've trusted recently even more than other prediction markets is the good judgment project they've got. They've put together teams of people who have demonstrated proven track record of being very good at predicting things.
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