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The Skeptics Guide #862 - Jan 15 2022

The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe

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The Gambler's Fallacy and Regression to the Mean

The gambler's fallacy is, yo can take one of two kinds of forms. You could say, oh, red is coming up a lot, therefore red is hot. The regression to the mean is that there's a tendency for things to average out over time. We're talking about something that has like a normal curve. Things average out overtime because they've regress to a mean. There is no mean. If something's 50 50, it still should be like if you flipped the coin a million times, the proportion of heads to tails would be really close. That is just statistically true. And that is wy y oit on li curve. So heis actually confusing two

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