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5 – When Grandmas ask “What is Rationality?”

The Bayesian Conspiracy

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The Probability of Flipping a Coin

If you flip a coin 10 times and the first nine times it comes up heads, what is the probability that it's going to come up tails on the 10th flip? 5050. A lot of people will say it's a much greater probability that it will that it will come up tails because it's come up at so many times it's due for it to be tails. But if it was 999 times out of 1000, I would say we have we have an un-f Right. And so then you can use your, your Bayesian updating to say, look, the fact that it had probability is in the mind, not in the reality. Probability is an aspect of

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