In this episode of the Missing Middle podcast, mortgage broker Ron Butler sits down with conservative pundit Sabrina Maddeaux and economist Mike Moffatt to discuss the current crisis in the Toronto condo market. Ron outlines the vast scope of the problem stemming from pre-construction purchases made during a speculative boom. He explains how investors are facing significant losses as property values decline, while also addressing the broader implications of poor development choices and the lack of low-rise housing options. The conversation explores the role of government in addressing these issues and the potential for positive change in the housing market.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction Ron Butler
01:06 Outlining the Toronto condo market crisis
04:07 How much of this story is a Toronto and Vancouver story?
05:22 Never go cash-flow negative?
07:01 How do we have a glut of condos during a housing shortage?
09:51 How condo developers contributed to the crash
12:13 Who is Most Affected by the Crisis?
14:00 Financing challenges and future outlook
15:33 The perfect storm - purpose-built rentals
17:18 Government subsidized rentals
18:13 The greenbelt and Downview Airport land
19:39 Is this the Toronto bubble burst? Is it The One?
20:23 Low-rise homes in Toronto - a brief history of artificial scarcity
23:05 What about family sized condos?
25:08 What’s the best non-terrible case scenario here?
27:32 The role of government in housing solutions
29:08 It wouldn’t be an MM podcast without Mike talking about development charges
30:25 Sabrina wants the government to get out of the way
Research and links:
The Angry Mortgage podcast
How low will rents go?
416 Condo Crash
Chart Storm: Five graphs on Toronto’s historic condo market collapse
Guest: Ron Butler, https://x.com/ronmortgageguy
https://www.butlermortgage.ca/
Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux
Produced by Meredith Martin
This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.
