Regime-Change Fears: Libya Comparison

The U.S. is moving additional military assets into the Middle East amid speculation Trump could green light an attack on Iran at any moment. The sense that an overt war is imminent has abated and the protests, riots, and bloodshed in the streets of Iran that took place earlier this month have, for now, ended, yet the incendiary situation remains liable to develop into wider conflict. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that if Iran sought to assassinate him, “the whole country's going to get blown up.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said that any attempt to assassinate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “is tantamount to a full-scale war with the Iranian nation.”

Drop Site News’s Jeremy Scahill spoke to Dr. Foad Izadi, professor of American studies and international relations at University of Tehran, on Wednesday. They discussed the origins of the protests, the narrative war, how Iran might respond to another military attack by the U.S. and more.

“The U.S. wants to repeat the Libya experience, disintegrate Iran, take out the oil-rich southern part, and then the rest of the country would fall apart. This is the ultimate plan they have,” said Izadi. “I don't think they have given up. I think Trump has basically given the Iran portfolio to Netanyahu.  He decides what to do. And then basically Trump implements whatever Netanyahu has decided to do. And Trump is going to be in office for another three years. So I don't think they are done with Iran.”

Behind the war of words between the U.S. and Iran are two competing narratives about what took place in early January. Western governments and much of the corporate media have characterized Iran as an authoritarian regime, one facing widespread protests, that carried out a series of bloody massacres. Opponents of the Islamic Republic, including Iranians who participated in the protests, have characterized this moment as one where a dying repressive regime, desperate to keep its grip on power, has violently crushed protests by those who dare to oppose it.

Iran has pushed back forcefully on both these allegations and this description, saying that the domestic unrest is nothing short of a U.S.-Israeli sponsored violent infiltration in the country that sought to hijack legitimate protests to pave the way for regime change. Iranian officials have charged that what began as peaceful marches—meeting no violent crackdown from the state—turned deadly when agitators, encouraged and supported by the U.S. and Israel, began attacking government buildings, religious sites, and other infrastructure, while assassinating and executing police and other security personnel, along with ordinary citizens. Iran said the events of the past weeks are a continuation of the 12-day war waged against Iran in June that saw the U.S. and Israel bomb the country for 12 days. 

For the past 12 days, the government has almost entirely shut down the internet in Iran. The limited internet has made it very difficult to independently verify events on the ground.