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Sean Taylor — Business Decision Problems

Gradient Dissent: Conversations on AI

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Are Prediction Markets Driving Predictions Markets?

The polls are informing the participants of the prediction markets. People in the prediction markets have some subjective belief about what's going to happen. I think at the limit, if you really want to do well in a prediction market, you would want to bring as much information as you could to bear on the problem. It does look a little bit like this Foxes versus Hedgehogs things. Like they just kind of cobble together little bits of information and make more directional changes.

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