Investing in the Future: Optimism in Uncertainty

This chapter examines the significance of optimism in investment decisions, notably in the context of technological advancements. It highlights key areas for growth, particularly in robotics and healthcare, and emphasizes the transformative potential of these innovations. The discussion further addresses the challenges within healthcare and the importance of innovative approaches to investment in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals.

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Episode notes

One way to find great investment opportunities is to ask yourself what must change over the years ahead. In this episode, Baillie Gifford partner Stuart Dunbar explores the increased use of robotics to fill gaps in the workforce and medical advances that help keep healthcare affordable, among other transformational themes.

Background:

Stuart Dunbar is a client relationship director and coordinates Baillie Gifford’s global marketing and product development activity, which includes responsibility for the firm’s Actual investors campaign.

For this Short Briefings… episode, he challenged himself to identify five transformational growth drivers that are both inevitable and investable. His picks cover:

the rise of robotic systems that can make sense of their immediate environment and act autonomously
the intelligent design of drugs and other efforts to deliver less costly, more effective healthcare
the energy transition to renewables and electrification of transport
greater dependence on the infrastructure underpinning digital payment systems
the dawn of automated transport, including driverless trucks and delivery drones

Dunbar explains the factors making these forces of change necessary, including the ageing populations of many developed countries, the resulting labour shortages and rising medical budgets.

He also names some of the companies we have backed that could benefit, either by pioneering new or better ways of doing things or by playing critical roles in the involved supply chains. These range from John Deere & Co, whose self-driving tractors and precision-applied pesticide technologies help farmers increase yields and cut costs, to Nexans and Prysmian, whose extra-high-voltage cables connect offshore wind turbines to onshore energy grids.

Resources:

Actual investing: why thinking differently matters

Christiana Figueres: stubborn optimism

Eureka Alert: Cheryl Mehrkar’s robotic surgery

Michael Lewis: Going Infinite

Stuart Dunbar on growth investing (video)

Zeke Faux: Number Go Up

Past Short Briefings… episodes

Companies mentioned include:

Adyen

Amazon

Aurora Innovation