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Darius Dale and Michael Gayed: Uncovering the Secrets of Global Liquidity & US Business Cycles

Lead-Lag Live

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The Liquidity Cycle Downturn in the US

In terms of where we are with the private sector liquidity, I assume you are talking about the United States of America. M1 in the US economy is currently drawing down at minus 8.3% on a max drawdown basis. And it's actually 8.3%. The safest part of the slope of the downtrend was very much coinciding with the first three quarters of 2022. But that doesn't necessarily mean it's we're ready for the big main event that I see coming in the second half of the year. It sounds like you and I probably have the similar mindset that there's a credit event looming,. which would be sort of the main event.

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