GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan
Top Traders Unplugged
Energy supply: shale decline versus 'drill baby drill'
Adam assesses US shale rollover, geological limits, and why political pushes for more domestic supply face practical constraints.
Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed.
-----
50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:00 - Introduction
03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles
08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes
13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets
20:47 - Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system
27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation
34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk
41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”
49:10 - Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle for supply
55:48 - Oil’s forgotten value and echoes of past energy cycles
01:00:19 - Gold, miners, and the new hierarchy of precious assets
01:07:23 - Helium, the next frontier, and closing reflections on a changing world
Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
----
PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here
2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score
One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here
3. Other Resources that can help you
And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here
The AI-powered Podcast Player
