Managed decline versus resilience

The year began amid optimism that Europe was finally prepared to meet its economic potential. But as the end of 2025 approaches, how much has actually changed in the European story of weak growth and political fragmentation? In this special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing join David Wilder to what has – and hasn’t – changed in the European outlook.

They explore Europe’s challenges in navigating an increasingly fractured global economy, including whether its industries are equipped to handle competitive pressures from the US and China, the risks stemming from elevated public debt, and why the urgency to ramp up defence spending isn’t being met by action.

Plus, in a clip from a recent client briefing, EM economists Liam Peach and William Jackson provide an update on the war in Ukraine and the latest White House efforts to broker a ceasefire.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode

Drop-In: The World in 2026 - The global macro and market outlook
Spotlight: The future of Europe
Read: ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growth
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Read: Russia & China: a “no limits” partnership with limits