China's Diplomatic Shift in Europe

There has been a significant transformation in Europe-China relations over the past decade, with a shift from economic optimism to cautious de-risking. While Europe has sought partnerships with China, particularly in industrial and technological sectors, there are increasing concerns about economic dependencies that may be leveraged by Beijing for political gain. The Russia-Ukraine war has further complicated the dynamic, as China’s support for Russia has created divisions within Europe regarding how to engage with China moving forward.

In this episode, Janka Oertel explains the key drivers behind Europe’s changing relationship with China and the ongoing debates in European policy circles about how to reduce dependencies on Chinese goods, technology, and investments without completely decoupling. She emphasizes that de-risking is not a simple, one-size-fits-all strategy but rather a complex process that varies across European countries and industries.

The episode also discusses how China has sought to deepen relationships with countries in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans, providing investments through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to gain access to EU markets. Oertel notes that while some EU countries have welcomed Chinese investments, others are growing increasingly wary of Beijing’s intentions.

The conversation touches on how Europe is looking to collaborate with India and the Global South as part of its broader strategy to diversify partnerships and reduce its reliance on China. The discussion highlights the importance of political will on both sides to make the EU-India relationship a cornerstone of future European foreign policy.

Episode Contributors:

Janka Oertel is the Director of the Asia Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). Her research focuses on EU-China relations, US-China relations, Asia-Pacific security, and emerging technologies. She is the author of "End of the China Illusion: How We Must Deal with Beijing's Claim to Power."

Shibani Mehta is a senior research analyst with the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India. Her research focuses on the India-China boundary dispute with the purpose of analyzing India’s foreign and security policy decision-making. She also writes extensively on South Asian regional dynamics and minilaterals in the Indo-Pacific.

Additional Readings:

• The End of Germany’s China illusion With Janka Oertel by Janka Oertel
• EU-China Relations: De-Risking or De-Coupling—the Future of the EU Strategy Towards China: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2024/754446/EXPO_STU(2024)754446_EN.pdf
• European Commission’s 2019 Strategic Outlook on China: https://commission.europa.eu/system/files/2019-03/communication-eu-china-a-strategic-outlook.pdf
• "China's New International Paradigm: Security First" by Helena Legarda: https://merics.org/en/chinas-new-international-paradigm-security-first
• "This isn't a new weapon, it is a new world"—three things Oppenheimer tells us about tech. https://www.ias.edu/news/video-2024-public-policy-lecture

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