6min chapter

Investing Experts cover image

The Macro Update (Q1 2023) With Eric Basmajian (EPB Macro Research)

Investing Experts

CHAPTER

What Is the Average Growth Rate When the Recession Starts?

Economic growth exploded higher in the middle of 2021, which coincided with the third stimulus payment. Over the last year, we've had economic growth sort of staircase lower from 3% to 2% to 1%. The average growth rate when the recession starts is 1.0%. And that's roughly where we are right now. We're on the cusp of a recession or recessionary territory.

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