Marquette Polls and Independent Voter Collapse

Chuck Todd breaks down why Donald Trump’s sudden push for a Ukraine “peace deal” may be more about political retreat than diplomacy, especially as Europe now shoulders most of the war’s cost—leaving Trump with diminished leverage abroad and a base deeply skeptical of foreign interventions. Chuck digs into new polling that shows a steady and significant shift toward Democrats, with a widening generic ballot advantage and Trump’s approval continuing to fall, suggesting the midterms—and even the Senate—are unexpectedly in play. He explores how Trump’s attempts to manipulate the economy could backfire, how a potential “AI bubble” could further weaken him, and why GOP divisions are poised to intensify. Plus, an update on the California governor’s race, where a field of lackluster Democratic contenders has allowed Republicans to overperform, raising questions about whether bigger names—or Rick Caruso—will jump into a race long dominated by the shadows of Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom.

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football. 

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Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:00 Trump’s “peace deal” may be his attempt to walk away from Ukraine

06:00 Europe is funding bulk of the war, Trump has less leverage

07:15 Trump’s plan to make Europe foot bill is working, but diminishes influence

09:15 If Trump gave rationale for removing Maduro, he’d have more credibility

11:00 Trump’s base doesn’t want foreign military interventions 

12:30 Polling shows Democrats with large generic ballot advantage

15:30 Every poll has moved in the Democrats direction, and lower Trump approval

17:30 Donald Trump will try to pull levers to fix economy, could make it worse

19:00 Democrats have a huge advantage going into the midterms

19:45 Democrats need a 6-7 point generic advantage to win house

20:15 If current polling holds, the senate is in play

23:00 Applying election and polling trends nationwide, Dems could blowout midterms

24:30 Democrats unpopularity turned out to be meaningless in 2025 elections

26:00 Bad is going to get worse for Trump, GOP will be further divided

27:45 “AI Bubble” could sink Trump if it pops

29:00 Update on the California governor’s race

29:45 Democratic voters crave optimism, Tom Steyer doesn’t offer it

31:30 Candidates for CA governor feel like their all “Tier 2” candidates

34:00 Jerry Brown & Gavin Newsom have hovered over CA politics for decades

36:00 There are only two prominent Republican candidates in CA

37:00 Dem candidates are so weak, GOP candidates performing well

38:00 Will Rick Caruso run for mayor of LA or governor of CA?

40:30 There should be some bigger names jumping into the race

00:46:15 Ask Chuck

00:46:45 Any book recommendations on the fall of the Ottoman Empire?

00:50:45 Thoughts on voter approval for constitutional amendments?

00:56:00 Way to reform the primary system to produce moderates?

01:00:30 Dem voters still motivated to vote despite lower approval of party

01:08:00 College football preview

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