2min chapter

Bloomberg Businessweek cover image

Instant Reaction: The Fed Decides

Bloomberg Businessweek

CHAPTER

Analyzing Global Capital Flows and Bond Market Risks

This chapter examines the evolving dynamics of the bond market, highlighting signs of a buyer strike and its impact on global capital flows. It also explores the effects of U.S. treasury yields on international investments and the reactions of European markets to American monetary policies.

00:00
Speaker 7
You
Speaker 2
know, there's some people, Bob, worried about a buyer strike emerging in the bond market. And I just wonder, with yields at these levels, do we just keep sucking capital away from the rest of the world here in the United States? Because if I'm thinking about the policy coming down the pike, from my perspective and many others as well, if you're investing in America, there's going to be policies to reward it. If you're exporting it, that's a very, very different scenario of trying to export into America. But do we just keep sucking capital away from the rest of the world?
Speaker 7
Well, yesterday was the perfect evidence of that. There was every reason to hide from the bond market. You had a 30-year auction, and it went flawlessly. You
Speaker 1
see the same thing, Rich? I do. And in particular, look, we focus on the US, but it's a global bond market. And treasury yields four and a half. We saw a year, almost exactly a year ago, treasury yields got to five and there was a voracious appetite to lock in those yields. And so I do think there's a range within which the growth and the Fed and the fiscal pit plays in, but beyond a certain point, it becomes very attractive to international investors. So
Speaker 2
we retain the privilege of acting recklessly, as some people might say. Absolutely.
Speaker 4
Kicking that can down the road. Yeah. Although I do wonder what the consequence is of kicking the can down the road and then Germany saying, hey, they're doing it, so we'll do it too. You know, this sounds like a good plan. France, hey, what about us? And all of a sudden you get yields rising higher. And how much does the bond market suck in the capital away from other risk assets? That's the question. No, I'm serious. That's one of my main questions. Some of
Speaker 2
these European bond markets have learned they're not American, and that has been a painful lesson.
Speaker 4
Which one in
Speaker 2
particular? We've seen that in the UK. We had a little sprinkle of that in France. We saw that in the periphery a decade ago.

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