The Mystery of Predicted Odds

3min Snip

00:00

Play full episode

Summary

Transcript

Episode notes

In the UK, it's very easy to gamble on these topics. And you don't even pay tax on the on the wings. I found that as recently as like a week or two ago, I could earn a 6% return betting on Biden to win the election. This is in early to mid December. And I could have bet up to 1.7 million pounds earning a 6%. So they're not small markets. They're hundreds of thousands of pounds. It's actually is no surprise to me that predicted odds, especially as you approach the zero and 100% bounds become seriously distorted and quite wrong. But the mystery is a bit deeper than that because say in the UK,. it

What are the best strategies for improving ourselves? How are line managers useful? Why does Rob prefer long-form content for the 80,000 Hours podcast? What are the sorts of things humans value and why? In what ways do research ethics considerations fail to achieve their stated objectives? Why are prediction markets useful?

Rob Wiblin is the Head of Research at 80,000 Hours where he investigates how people can do more good in the course of their career and produces a long-form interview show called the 80,000 Hours Podcast. He studied genetics and economics in Australia before moving to the UK to help develop the emerging field of effective altruism. You can learn more about Rob at robwiblin.com, learn more about his research work at 80000hours.org, and follow him on social media at @robertwiblin.

Staff