AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
3min chapter
Self-Improvement and Research Ethics (with Rob Wiblin)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
The Mystery of Predicted Odds
In the UK, it's very easy to gamble on these topics. And you don't even pay tax on the on the wings. I found that as recently as like a week or two ago, I could earn a 6% return betting on Biden to win the election. This is in early to mid December. And I could have bet up to 1.7 million pounds earning a 6%. So they're not small markets. They're hundreds of thousands of pounds. It's actually is no surprise to me that predicted odds, especially as you approach the zero and 100% bounds become seriously distorted and quite wrong. But the mystery is a bit deeper than that because say in the UK,. it
00:00
Transcript
Episode notes
Get the Snipd
podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any
moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share
& Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered
podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode