Risks of Overcapacity and Involution in China

One big story captures all six books selected by the Financial Times for their short list of best business books of 2025. As the FT’s Senior Business Writer, Andrew Hill, notes, it’s the story of the shift in global economic power from the United States to China. It’s game over. From Dan Wang’s Breakneck, which contrasts China’s “engineering state” with America’s “lawyering nation,” to Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson’s Abundance, chronicling America’s inability to build infrastructure, the shortlist reads like an autopsy of American decline. Edward Fishman’s Choke Points examines the new age of economic warfare, while Eva Dou’s House of Huawei reveals how Chinese companies vaulted past Western competitors. Even Stephen Witt’s The Thinking Machine, ostensibly about NVIDIA’s triumph, ultimately focuses on the US-China technology race. The judges, Hill admits, “very clearly narrowed in on this highly consequential US-China theme.” Whether chronicling rare earth minerals, clean energy dominance, or regulatory sclerosis, these books ask the same uncomfortable question: Is the American century over?

* China’s “Engineering State” vs. America’s “Lawyering Nation” - Dan Wang’s framework in Breakneck captures the fundamental difference: China builds (pouring concrete, clearing regulatory obstacles), while America litigates, creating layers of bureaucracy that prevent infrastructure development.

* The Abundance Paradox - Klein and Thompson’s bestseller reveals America’s core dysfunction: a nation that once defined progress now can’t build a high-speed rail link between its two most important California cities, spending billions for thirty yards of track.

* Economic Warfare Replaces Free Trade - Edward Fishman’s Choke Points documents how sanctions, tariffs, and supply chain control have become the primary weapons of statecraft, with “choke points” entering the policy lexicon as the new language of power.

* China Already Controls the Future’s Raw Materials - From rare earth minerals to clean energy technology, China has made strategic bets on tomorrow’s economy while America remained wedded to oil and coal, creating dependencies that may be impossible to reverse.

* Even American Success Stories Are Really About China - NVIDIA’s $5 trillion valuation, chronicled in Stephen Witt’s The Thinking Machine, isn’t purely an American triumph—it’s fundamentally about Taiwan, China, and the geopolitical competition for semiconductor dominance.

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