Are We Fooled by Randomists?

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I want to come back to the epidemiological result that we talked about earlier, because there's an interesting parallel in economics. In economics, ed limer at usale appointed is bias out and its what i like about is it goes back to an old professor mind george stigler. Yes, there's another prediction, very interesting a i did not put in a book because tis, i mean, the black swan is more about medicine than this is about economics, ok? So i didn't put a lot of economic example into economic life.

Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. Taleb's contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.