Black Swans & Pink Flamingos
GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution
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The Ten Year Hunt for Osama Bin Laden
The agency didn't attach a high probability to that happening when it happened. Almost nobody got the timing of that soviet collapse right. And i think we underestimate how important those insights were in the cold war. I think it's an extraordinary success that tenure man hunt for bellont ye was successful. But it was hunting more than gathering, wasn't it?
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