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Gerd Gigerenzer on Gut Feelings

EconTalk

The Conjunction Law and the Cognitive Illusion

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The idea that people make decisions about money in some sort of laboratory setting is of course ridiculous. Markets provide information that aren't available in the lab. Vernon Smith is I think been very eloquent and correct on this, but carry on. Sorry. Yeah, he'll just give you another example of some of these studies. One of the so called cognitive illusion is called the conjunction fallacy. So the idea is that some some event cannot be more likely at the same event and another event together.

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