Supply Dynamics and Rent Recovery

It’s that time of the year again—Black Friday, Cyber Monday. Everyone loves a deal.

If you’ve been investing long enough, you know one important fact: there is always something on sale.

The problem is the herd never sees it. They’re too busy chasing whatever feels safe because it’s setting new records.

And right now? That’s the stock market. That’s gold. Everyone’s piling into the most expensive things they can find and patting themselves on the back for being “prudent.”

But smart investors don’t chase what’s already expensive.
They look for the thing sitting quietly on the clearance rack, the thing nobody wants yet.

And today, that thing is real estate—particularly apartments.

We’ve seen this movie before.

Think back to the early 2000s. After the dot-com crash, everybody ran to gold and Treasuries. Meanwhile, the very companies that would define the next two decades—Amazon, Apple, Microsoft—were sitting there marked down 75%. You didn’t need to be a genius to buy them. You just needed the stomach.

Then there was 2009–2011. Real estate was radioactive. The media made it sound like apartment buildings were going to fall into sinkholes. But if you bought during that window?

Values didn’t take ten years to recover. They snapped back within three. And then they kept running for another decade.

And remember 2020—oil going negative? That’s the kind of insanity that only happens once in a generation. People were literally joking that Exxon would pay you to take barrels off their hands.

It was absurd… and it was the greatest energy buying opportunity in modern history. But most people sat on the sidelines in fear.

Different cycles, different assets, same principle:
If you want outsized returns, you have to be willing to buy what everyone else is mispricing.

And right now, the only major asset class not making all-time highs is real estate. In fact, our Investor Club is still finding deals discounted 30–40 percent from just a few years ago.

Apartments, specifically, are in this bizarre sweet spot where pricing is still beaten up from the rate shock, yet the fundamentals underneath are quietly strengthening.

Sellers who bought with floating debt are fatigued.
Buyers with dry powder are getting real discounts.
Construction has collapsed—meaning supply will be razor-thin in 18–24 months.

And the interest-rate environment is shifting in exactly the direction apartments benefit from.

This is why rates matter.
This is why liquidity matters.
This is why cycles matter.

When financing costs come down and supply is constrained, prices don’t grind higher—they launch.

This Is Exactly What the Bottom Feels Like

Bottoms never feel like bottoms. They feel confusing. Uneasy. Contradictory.

And that is precisely why it’s the opportunity.

Every big wealth-building moment looks like this in real time. Everyone’s distracted by what’s hot while the discount sits in plain sight.

Make no mistake—if the Fed keeps cutting and liquidity continues loosening, apartments aren’t going to stay discounted. They’ll do what they did after 2009. They’ll do what oil did after 2020. They’ll do what tech did after the dot-com crash.

They’ll reprice fast.

And years from now, people will look back at this exact moment and say the thing they always say after missing the obvious:

“It was right there. Why didn’t I buy more?”

Well… it is right here. Apartments are on sale.

No one has been beating the drum more on this than my guest on Wealth Formula Podcast this week.