Exploring the Unpredictability of AI's Future

Today I’m reacting to Arvind Narayanan’s interview with Robert Wright on the Nonzero podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoB_pikM3NY

Dr. Narayanan is a Professor of Computer Science and the Director of the Center for Information Technology Policy at Princeton. He just published a new book called AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference.

Arvind claims AI is “normal technology like the internet”, and never sees fit to bring up the impact or urgency of AGI. So I’ll take it upon myself to point out all the questions where someone who takes AGI seriously would give different answers.

00:00 Introduction

01:49 AI is “Normal Technology”?

09:25 Playing Chess vs. Moving Chess Pieces

12:23 AI Has To Learn From Its Mistakes?

22:24 The Symbol Grounding Problem and AI's Understanding

35:56 Human vs AI Intelligence: The Fundamental Difference

36:37 The Cognitive Reflection Test

41:34 The Role of AI in Cybersecurity

43:21 Attack vs. Defense Balance in (Cyber)War

54:47 Taking AGI Seriously

01:06:15 Final Thoughts

Show Notes

The original Nonzero podcast episode with Arvind Narayanan and Robert Wright: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoB_pikM3NY

Arvind’s new book, AI Snake Oil: https://www.amazon.com/Snake-Oil-Artificial-Intelligence-Difference-ebook/dp/B0CW1JCKVL

Arvind’s Substack: https://aisnakeoil.com

Arvind’s Twitter: https://x.com/random_walker

Robert Wright’s Twitter: https://x.com/robertwrighter

Robert Wright’s Nonzero Newsletter: https://nonzero.substack.com

Rob’s excellent post about symbol grounding (Yes, AIs ‘understand’ things): https://nonzero.substack.com/p/yes-ais-understand-things

My previous episode of Doom Debates reacting to Arvind Narayanan on Harry Stebbings’ podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lehJlitQvZE

Doom Debates’ Mission is to raise mainstream awareness of imminent extinction from AGI and build the social infrastructure for high-quality debate.

Support the mission by subscribing to my Substack at DoomDebates.com and to youtube.com/@DoomDebates. Thanks for watching.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit lironshapira.substack.com