
Episode 17: What is going to happen next?
On Geopolitics
The Paradox of Good Prediction
Good prediction will always seem to be wrong, because nothing in the future is fixed. But if you're trying to warn that something might happen, the best predictions look like false alarms. Action taken by Ukraine and the degree of useful support it receives will determine exactly how far and how quickly Russia can be pushed back. I think we should be aiming for something where alliances of countries are greater than the sum of their parts so that they are thinking collectively.
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