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Will Earnings Reports Portend Recession?

The Breakdown

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The Impact of Global Tightening on Consumer Product Prices

Many central banks and large economies have raised rates by 125 basis points or more in the past six months. The combined effect of concurrent global tightening is larger than the sum of its parts. We are attentive to the risk of further adverse shocks from Russia's war against Ukraine, the pandemic, or China's zero-covid policies. Cross-border effects of unexpected movements in interest rates and exchange rates could interact with financial vulnerabilities. In this environment, a sharp decrease in risk sentiment or other risk events that may be difficult to anticipate could be amplified.

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