The Probability of RCT Results

You are the director of a giant government research program that’s conducting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on two thousand health interventions, so that you can pick out the most cost-effective ones and promote them among the general population.

The quality of the two thousand interventions follows a normal distribution, centered at zero (no harm or benefit) and with standard deviation 1. (Pick whatever units you like — maybe one quality-adjusted life-year per ten thousand dollars of spending, or something in that ballpark.)

Unfortunately, you don’t know exactly how good each intervention is — after all, then you wouldn’t be doing this job. All you can do is get a noisy measurement of intervention quality using an RCT. We’ll call this measurement the intervention’s performance in your RCT.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nnDTgmzRrzDMiPF9B/how-much-do-you-believe-your-results