3min chapter

The Gray Area with Sean Illing cover image

Julia Galef on how to argue better and change your mind more

The Gray Area with Sean Illing

CHAPTER

Political Forecasting Is a Wonderful Example

On the packaging of Q tips, they say, please don't put these in your ear. But what a lot of people do with Q tips is buy them and immediately stick them as far into their ears impossible. And like the Q tip company knows this perfectly well and continues to use Q tips for this large put them in your ear market. I think political forecasting is a lot like that where what the political forecasters are saying is, hey, listen, we are giving you an accurate probabilistic forecast.

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