The Gray Area with Sean Illing cover image

Julia Galef on how to argue better and change your mind more

The Gray Area with Sean Illing

CHAPTER

Political Forecasting Is a Wonderful Example

On the packaging of Q tips, they say, please don't put these in your ear. But what a lot of people do with Q tips is buy them and immediately stick them as far into their ears impossible. And like the Q tip company knows this perfectly well and continues to use Q tips for this large put them in your ear market. I think political forecasting is a lot like that where what the political forecasters are saying is, hey, listen, we are giving you an accurate probabilistic forecast.

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