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Cross Cause Comparisons
i have much less confidence now than i used to about er how well placed i am to make cross cause comparisons on the basis of calculations like givwells. There are unexpected terms in the grand a m f calculation, like the big one that takes into account all the unforeseen effects and tries to average over the credences before i'd be in any position to do the cross cause proization. So it's made me a lot more, a modest maybe, or something like that, about the value of these impact valuations in the cross cause arena.
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