It was widely believed for a long time that the Great Depression was cured by optimism, which is what you're talking about. When confronted with the date of the relapse in 1938 and other problems, oh yeah, yeah, it wasn't FDR, it was the war. We don't have any idea what the underlying mechanisms were, but we attribute whatever makes us feel most likely that it's correct. And this is one of the reasons why I find that this idea of deep learning is helpful at every level.
Neurologist and author Robert Burton talks about his book, On Being Certain, with EconTalk host Russ Roberts. Burton explores our need for certainty and the challenge of being skeptical about what our brain tells us must be true. Where does what Burton calls "the feeling of knowing" come from? Why can memory lead us astray? Burton claims that our reaction to events emerges from competition among different parts of the brain operating below our level of awareness. The conversation includes a discussion of the experience of transcendence and the different ways humans come to that experience.