People are overly cautious about events that are unlikely. People don't understand the following is that if you have a er stock market crash, and the option nan can cover a 30, forty, 50 hundred years of piane. The point is that you cannot generalize from an experiment that is not natural to natural settings. And we identify it exactly with the mistake people make - making a statement derived from a variable that has a bounded payos and generalizing to thing tat have open ended payofsi.

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