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#042 Black Swans, The End of Jobs, and Long Volatility with Taylor Pearson of Mutiny Fund

Smart Friends

How to Get the Best Returns Per Unit of Risk

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The obtimal portfolio is a log wealth maximizing strate that buse thes whole ideaof this lick, the kelly criterion, and that sizing. It was developed by an engineer at bell labs who did it with a black jack initially. The straies aren't super popular because people don't like long a becase t usudaly loses money. But if you bet everything you have, youre certain to be wrong time, you lose everything.

Topics:

(6:21) - What is your specific knowledge?

(7:20) - Taylor’s career

(12:38) - Transaction Cost Economics

(20:02) - The work behind Taylor’s first book: The End of Jobs

(21:20) - Was publishing that book a major inflection point in your career?

(23:53) - Taylor’s writing on the crypto space and work in investing & finance

(29:03) - Mutiny Funds

(32:57) - The Long-Volatility Strategy

(36:33) - The Thousand-Year Portfolio

(40:49) - Who is using the long-volatility strategy and how are they using it?

(43:16) - What does the strategy look like day to day?

(50:07) - Volatility Index

(55:33) - Are there future products in the funnel for Mutiny?

(57:44) - What do you look for in the hedge funds you assemble?

(1:00:20) - How long have you been building this core of knowledge?

(1:04:11) - How do you know when to shift your focus?

(1:07:11) - Are there people you look up to who are great examples of playing the long game?

(1:09:25) - What is the long game for Mutiny?

(1:12:49) - How do you maintain discipline when the world tells you to take the other path?

(1:16:22) - What mental model do you use most often?

Links:

Taylor’s website

Taylor’s The Interesting Times newsletter

The End of Jobs by Taylor Pearson

Blog post: Markets Are Eating The World by Taylor Pearson

The Kelly Criterion with Edward Thorp

The Cockroach Portfolio

The Volatility Index

The Origin of Wealth by Eric Beinhocker

Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone

A Man for All Markets by Edward Thorp

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